Winter Olympics 2010

The words 'Winter Olympics' tend to conjure one of two images: either that of plucky Brits being heroically hopeless in an Eddie the Eagle manner; or, alternatively, the swift conversion of the BBC audience to a hitherto little known sport such as curling, once we sniff the chance of a medal. It may please you to know that the 2010 games in Vancouver promise to be less of the former and more of the latter. For despite winning just one medal in 2006 - Shelley Rudman's silver in the women's skeleton - big things are being predicted this time:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/olympics/5159148/Great-Britain-on-course-for-best-ever-Winter-Olympics-performance-in-Vancouver-2010.html

Now since that article (April 2009) the media story has focused on the funding crisis, most recently the possibility of Snowsport GB going into administration and the impact this may have had on British athletes preparation. Snowboarder Zoe Gillings, for example, whose blog you can find here, was only able to practise for four days on snow before the winter season began, rather than the 5-6 weeks she'd planned.

The best medal chances you would think would be the events in which GB have the current world champions: the women's bobsleigh and the men's curling, plus the women's skeleton in which Rudman and Amy Williams are currently ranked second and fifth in the world. However in the women's bobsleigh the driver, Nicola Minichiello, has had to undergo surgery to correct a rare eye condition (the same one as Paul Scholes suffered from) as recently as late January. So there is another reason to be dampen optimism, on top of the funding issues. But nonetheless:

8 pts GB to win 3 or more medals at 7/4, Skybet
2 pts GB to win 4 or more medals at 4/1, Coral

One single event that interests me is the men's curling, where the British (i.e. Scottish) team are world champs, narrowly beating Canada in Canada in 2009, having lost to them in the final in 2008. Canada are undoubtedly the best team - they'd been 12 months unbeaten going into the Worlds - with home advantage and a record of 1st in 2007 and 2008 before coming second last year they should surely be shorter than Skybet's 10/11. The 9/2 (bet365, betfred or expekt) on GB has some appeal too.

5 pts Canada to win men's curling at 10/11, Skybet

Predictions made last November put Canada, Germany and the US at the top of the overall medal pile, with the hosts just edging it:

Total medals
Canada 29
USA 28
Germany 28
Norway 25
Austria 18

6 pts Canada at 3/1, Betfred or William Hill
4 pts USA at 11/2, Skybet or bwin
4 pts laying Germany at 6/4, Betfair

In terms of total gold medals:
USA 13
Norway 11
Germany 9
Austria 8
Canada 6
China 6

5 pts USA at 15/4 Sportingbet, StanJames, expekt, Bwin
3 pts Norway at 13/2 expekt

Bet Noire

This weekend it's Genoa who face the task of ending Napoli's unbeaten run in Serie A which stretches back 14 matches (8 wins, 6 draws). Their run will surely end soon - Inter and Roma lie in wait in the near future - but I'm happy to take them to win at home against a weaker side prone to inconsistency at close to even money.

3 pts Napoli to beat Genoa at 20/21, StanJames

Deportivo host the Galacticos mark II and boast a remarkable record against Real Madrid at the Riazor, where they've won the last six encounters and haven't lost since the 1990s. A habit of grinding out results has seen Depor into the top five of La Liga and the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo - banned after a red card last weekend - is obviously a huge loss for Real.

2 pts Deportivo to beat Real Madrid at 3/1, bet365, VictorChandler

4 pts Deportivo + 0.5 at 19/20, bet365

1/2/10: sorry to say that Madrid overturned their Riazor hoodoo, and in some style too. Check out the Guti assist for their second.

The Crucial Three

The Big Four is dead, long live the, er, Big Three?

1. Chelsea 48
   
2. Man Utd 47 (played one more game)
   
3. Arsenal 45
   

Best available prices to win the Premier League:

1. Chelsea 4/5 (55.6%)
2. Man U 3/1 (25%)
3. Arsenal 4/1 (20%)
   

I won't be getting involved in those prices though I wonder whether Arsenal should be that much bigger priced than Man Utd given recent form? Certainly Chelsea's superior squad depth counts for a lot - the absence of, say, Fabregas or Rooney is huge for the other two. Everyone banged on all season about Chelsea's loss of players to the African Nations Cup being a big factor but I doubt Ancelotti's losing sleep over Birmingham (home) or Burnley (away).

And what of Liverpool? On the back of the latest injuries to Torres (six weeks) and Gerrard (two weeks) everyone is frantically re-rating them downward, with quotes on Liverpool's season points floored. I don't entirely share this logic, as both players struggled all season with injury, and Gerrard in particular has looked well off his best. He places just 45th in the current Actim index, being only the 16th highest-rated midfielder. A proper rest is overdue and could benefit Liverpool in the long term. His obvious replacement in the 4231, Benayoun, fracturing a rib against Reading was a blow, however. Maybe Aquilani will get an opportunity in that role?

But arguably this re-rating is simply bringing Liverpool into line with the form they've displayed all season. Anyone watching their matches will have seen how they've not only struggled to break teams down - something that's been a problem even in previous seasons - but also looked shaky defensively and generally lacked fluency. Someone out there must have been cleaning up by opposing the Reds, but for most of us it's a lesson learned in not letting your mind deceive you with preconceived beliefs ("but this is Liverpool!") and believing what you are actually seeing (dross).

I recommended backing City at odds-against in the Winner w/o Big Four market at the end of December and this is now around evens, despite their 2-0 reverse to Everton at the weekend. City have been defeated just three times all season, each time away from home to firstly United, secondly Spurs and now Everton. No disgrace in that. I see them improving a little under Mancini, especially once Kolo Toure and Joleon Lescott are back (don't fancy Richards-Kompany as a solid axis).

So far this season they've garnered 1.8 points per game - if they continue at the same rate, they'd finish with 68 or 69 points; a haul good enough to secure fourth place for five consecutive seasons from 2003 to 2007. To exceed the 70 point quote available with Sporting Index they'd need to improve to over 1.9 points per game. A tempting offer, but I'm content to leave it and stick with our current open position on City.

Everton have looked rejuvenated in 2010 with impressive displays away at Arsenal, where they conceded a late goal to draw 2-2, and then dishing out that 2-0 beating at home to Man City. A number of players seem to be returning to form at once - Tim Cahill and Marouane Fellaini in particular. The latter has for a long time looked lost in central midfield, and his presence if anything served to destabilise the team. By (belatedly?) moving him to a defensive midfield role, Moyes has restored balance to the side and is getting the best out of his expensive import. Meanwhile Landon Donovan looks a classic Moyes acquisition - a hard-working player with something to prove - and is already talking about the possibility of extending his loan.

Everyone wants to know when Mikel Arteta will return from injury, but arguably the absence of Jagielka is just as concerning right now. Whilst a fit and in-form Arteta is undoubtedly Everton's best player, Osman (vs Arsenal) and Pienaar (vs City) have successfully played central midfield roles recently, providing the football skills alongside Fellaini's ball-winning ability. Evertonians must hope some combination of Heitinga with Distin/Yobo can work at the back until Jagielka returns, now that Lucas Neill has departed for Turkey.

Having accrued just 26 points at a rate of 1.24 per game, Everton look like returning to somewhere close to recent season's levels of around 1.65/1.7 points per game. To beat the lowest spread quote of 51-52.5 points they'll need to better 1.56 points per game for the rest of the league season. This looks achievable, but there is no great upside and there exists the real possibility of extended cup runs in either the FA Cup or Europa League interfering with league form.

African Nations Cup 2010

A few early thoughts on the African Nations Cup, which runs 10th-31st January in Angola:

• Ivory Coast (5/2) look like worthy favourites with a squad featuring the likes of the Toures, Zokora, Kalou and, of course, Didier Drogba.
  
  
• Cameroon are probably the next best team. Paul Le Guen - who won three consecutive titles at Lyon before the Rangers debacle - replaced Otto Pfister as coach last summer and turned their World Cup campaign around, achieving four straight wins to qualify top of their group. Plenty of familiar names such as Assou-Ekoto, Bikey, Geremi, Marseille's Mbia, Lyon's Makoun, plus probably the best keeper in Kameni (Espanyol) and Le Guen's captain, record goalscorer Samuel Eto'o.
  
  
• Ghana are second in the betting but shorn of Muntari, Appiah, Paintsil and Mensah, and with Essien's fitness in question, they could struggle to get out of Group B in which they face favourites Ivory Coast, Togo and Burkina Faso.
  
  
• Mali could be a decent each-way shout at 33/1 (best price now 28s with Stan James): Mahamadou Diarra and Momo Sissoko doing the dirty work in midfield with Barca's Seydou Keita pulling the strings and Fredy Kanoute up front.
  

1pt Cameroon to win at 6/1, Totesport or StanJames.
2pts Mali to win Group A at 11/4, Ladbrokes or William Hill.

7/1/10: The predictable favourites for top goalscorer are Drogba (9/2) and Eto'o (5/1). My preference is for the latter, as Cameroon face an easier group and the incredibly selfish Eto'o has already outlined his intentions:

I would like to take Cameroon as far as possible, to even win the tournament. But my first objective will be to score the highest number at a single Nations Cup.

Sammy Eto'o has form here: his obsession with the Pichichi (top scorer in La Liga) was one of the things that irked Guardiola and made Barcelona keen to get rid of him. And he top scored in each of the last two African Nations by the way.

1 pt Eto'o to be top goalscorer at 5/1, Stan James.

What Became of the Likely Lads

Stepping into Kicking Bets territory here, but perusing the 2010 specials the 5/1 on offer about Pete Doherty receiving a custodial sentence caught my eye. He's been to jail a couple of times before, in 2003 and 2008, and escaped with a fine and an 18-month driving ban on 21st of December 2009 for dangerous driving whilst drunk and possession of heroin. Immediately re-arrested for the latter offence, he is currently on bail, set to appear at Gloucester magistrates court in January. Added to that there is the possibility of him being charged with offences linked to a hit-and-run incident, for which his manager has already been charged with a number of offences.

Now I'm not well enough acquainted with the law to know the precise chances of a custodial sentence being handed out in January, but Doherty's 21 previous drug offences can't help matters. Judging by the immediate re-arrest this month the police seem fairly keen to reintroduce him to the world of 'gangsters and Radio 4', as he's described prison life.

Pete Doherty to receive custodial prison sentence during 2010, 2pts at 5/1, William Hill

30/12/09 14:30: As well as beating me to the punch on the above, Chris Trinder of Kickingbets fame has also tipped up Fabio Capello to be knighted in 2010 with Willhill which sounds good. IF England win the World Cup, what price Capello is knighted next year? Given the recent trend for immediate rewards mid-career (e.g. 2005 Ashes MBEs) one would think it must be shorter than the approx. 11/1 required to get near Hill's price (say, 11/1 knighthood * 7/1 England win).

Sparky's Dream

The sacking of Mark Hughes by Manchester City provoked outrage, with the great and the good of the game falling over themselves to wade in on the 'disgrace'. The red-faced man who manages their rivals described it as 'unacceptable behaviour', explaining that, 'there is a way to treat people... for some reason Christmas seems to bring out the worst in directors'. I would have thought ruthlessly getting rid of underperforming staff, even if it made you unpopular with fans, and players, and caused consternation in the media, was very much in line with the Fergie blueprint. He's famed for selling players who are over the top, whose egos have ballooned, or who've just released a book detailing their manager's illegal tapping up. But perhaps he never did it near Christmas?

Meanwhile Kevin Keegan said that, 'when you read the statement it's not that of a real football club, it's that of a business', and thought it 'very cold and clinical and business-like'. Yes, Kevin, that's precisely what it is. A business decision. And that's precisely what it should be. Not nice, not fun, not oh well he's a good guy give him another chance, just a cold, clinical, business-like decision. Of course one can see why Keegan isn't wild about those entering football. They don't exactly do his employment opportunities much good.

Another old pal Steve Bruce found Hughes' sacking 'unbelievable' and couldn't understand the 'logic' of employing Mancini, a man with no experience managing in the Premier League. I imagine that his record of four cups and three league titles in just seven years of management had something to do with it, Steve. This compares favourably with Hughes' record of one European Championship qualification play-off with Wales and three FA Cup semi-finals with Blackburn. As for knowledge of the English Premier League, probably only Eskimos and North Koreans are not bombarded with TV coverage. Hilariously Bruce, a man well known for walking out on clubs if a better offer is on the table, preached stability as the key to success a la 'the Manchester Utd model'.

The most infuriating part of the reaction is that it is based, at least in part, on a lack of understanding of how football works outside Britain. In countries such as Spain and Italy the manager is not usually the all-powerful Wenger or Ferguson figure, with responsibility for everything and anything. The football director does the buying and selling, the manager is just a coach who picks the team. It's a smaller role, not one that dictates the whole direction of the club, and presidents are much more willing to chop and change. In October Serie A set a record with five managers sacked after just eight games of the season.

Now I wouldn't hold up the Italian league as a great example of sound decision making in this respect (strangely it's not that unusual for a coach to be sacked and then rehired by the same club during the same season - eh?!) but the point is that there is a different way of doing things to what we do in The Home of Football. From the point of view of the Abu Dhabi-based owners they have nigh on unlimited cash with which they've backed this guy, and he isn't getting results. He was probably a bit unlucky in this respect but was also not getting anything much out of their biggest investment, Robinho. This may be more to do with the Brazilian being a money-grabbing mercenary who doesn't fancy it than it is a reflection on Hughes' abilities, but if I was the owner I wouldn't be waiting to find out. I'd be firing Hughes and getting in someone who may be able to get Robinho playing and City winning matches. They have, and City have.

Just what is it about wealthy foreigners buying our football clubs that we dislike so much? The owners were baffled by the bad press on the whole affair and with good reason. They stump up the vast sums to buy the players and then appoint a guy to get them playing together and winning. They're not in this to let a manager "build something" over time by buying the odd Reo-Coker or Downing and maybe finish fifth three years from now. They want top four and then the title. Hughes knew the deal, he wasn't getting it done, so he had to go. We may find people trying to 'buy the title' so quickly a little distasteful but that isn't 'bringing the game into disrepute' anymore than squandering millions on mediocrities like Wayne Bridge is.

As for the manner of the sacking, I don't know about you but I wouldn't go sacking Hughes without having someone I rated as better lined up ready to take over. This Cook bod may be a bit of a chump but as Mancini effectively said, 'this is normal in Italy, what's the fuss about?' For what it's worth I'd say Mancini was treated a good deal worse by Inter Milan when ousted for Jose Mourinho and His Amazing Coat, whose achievements there have thus far been no more special than his predecessor.

Hailing from a nation where tactics and formations are given more attention - 'the Italian league is the tactical league', as the ever-quotable Mourinho put it - it will be interesting to see how Mancini deploys his resources. He has already said he wants his players familiar with three different formations. Tonight against Wolves they began (badly) playing 433 but a switch to 442 with Martin Petrov - one man who was certainly glad to see the back of Sparky - moving from right to left, brought better results. Two games, two wins, two clean sheets, albeit against a Stoke side on an alarming slide and the impotent Wanderers.

If the English league is the best league in the world - which it ought to be given it's the wealthiest - then it is down to that money attracting the best players from all over the world. The same should be true for coaches. As Simon Kuper writes in Why England Lose:

England can have an excellent league, or it can have an English league, but it can't have both.

So good luck to Mancini, better luck in future to Hughes, and when you next wonder how you should treat your fellow human beings be sure to consult the Ferguson manual.

4 pts Man City to win Prem w/o Big Four at 2.1, Bet365